- Short answer
- Predicted spend tier sorts customers into High, Medium or Low, and needs a store with over 100 sales.
- Who is scored
- Only customers who have made a purchase
- Horizon
- The following year, per Shopify's GraphQL API reference
- What you get
- A category, not an exact dollar figure
- Recalculation
- How often is not stated on the pages we read on October 28, 2026
What does predicted spend tier actually predict?
It is a prediction of your customers' spending potential, and only customers who have made a purchase are scored. Shopify's GraphQL API reference defines the tiers as the top, normal, or zero-or-lowest spending range for your shop in the following year. The result is a category, not an exact dollar figure.
It weighs signals that include purchase frequency, average order value against your store's average, order count and recency. A tier can move up or down over time, but none of the Help Center, shopify.dev, changelog or shopify.com pages we read on October 28, 2026 says how often it is recalculated.
Who can use it, and how do you build a High segment?
The Help Center sets the line at over 100 sales, while Shopify's own explainer words it as more than 100 orders. The segments reference says the predicted_spend_tier filter is only available after that.
Once it is available, open the segment editor on the Customers page, or click Create segment on the Segments page, and enter predicted_spend_tier = 'HIGH':
- Customers
- Segments
Customers who stop matching are removed automatically, so the list is live, not a snapshot.
What to use at 100 sales or fewer, and how it differs from RFM
Our suggestion, not Shopify's guidance: segment on rfm_group or amount_spent. Neither filter's section of the segments reference guide, read October 28, 2026, states a sales minimum; for rfm_group, our RFM segmentation guide reached the same finding.
| Tool | What it gives you | Documented condition |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_spend_tier filter | A forecast tier per customer: High, Medium or Low | Over 100 sales |
| rfm_group filter | One of 11 groups scored on past recency, frequency and spend | No sales minimum stated |
| amount_spent filter | Money already spent | No sales minimum stated |
| Cohort projections | Projected average amount spent per customer in each cohort | 24 months of data; Advanced or higher, per the changelog |
Shopify Help Center (segments reference guide, Customers reports) and Shopify Changelog, read October 28, 2026.
Projections in cohort analysis are a separate feature from the tier, announced in the changelog.
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